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Blackjack, or 21 is one of the most popular table game on the casino floor. A quick look might
leave the impression that the closest hand to 21 wins, but that is not the case. Edward Thorp's
classic book's title on the subject, Beat The Dealer, sums it up in a nutshell. A simple way to put
it might be: It doesn't matter what you have; it just matters what the dealer has.
That is an oversimplification but it's ultimately true. You can win and get paid when you have a
total of 12, and lose on 20. It happens every day. This deceptive game has many different levels
at which it can be played ranging from absolute novice to card-counting master. The thought
here is to offer you the rules and some simplified strategies to give you a basic comfort level.
Realizing that you are probably not going to make a million playing blackjack overnight, you
should find the game entertaining and enjoyable. I can tell you that I have witnessed some pretty
incredible streaks at the blackjack table (more about those later on), but most of us mortals
merely want to risk a few dollars to take a chance and hopefully, with a little bit of knowledge
and some patience, the cards will fall our way.
Blackjack Basic Strategies
Four Situations: Hit, Stand, Split, & Double
There are four different situations or possibilities in an original or two-card blackjack hand. The
strategies for dealing with each comes from more than 40 years of research done by
mathematicians, probability experts, and professional gamblers. Julian Braun, Dr. Edward Thorp,
Lawrence Revere, Stanford Wong, Arnold Snyder, Peter Griffin, and Don Schlesinger, represent
some of the most important theorists and innovators of blackjack over the last half-century, and
their legacy provides the foundation and framework for current blackjack philosophy and
practice.
On the ground floor of the blackjack high rise, are those who play the game, but don't put any
effort into learning much about it, so they guess or go by hunches or "feelings." This player can
only rely on the luck of the draw hoping for a chance to win. The next level of player cares about
learning the game enough so that he or she is willing to absorb what is termed a "basic strategy."
By learning basic strategy, the player elevates his or her level of play and greatly enhances the
possibility of winning, The third level of player assigns numerical values to each card in an
attempt to separate the cards that have been played in an attempt to determine the remaining
cards along with the mathematical odds of winning all remaining hands. This procedure is called
card counting and there are numerous methods to consider.
All of the strategies listed begin with two separate factors: your two cards compared to the
dealer's single exposed card. Those three cards represent the known values in the equation to
figure the possibilities. How you react is directly related to those two dynamics.. One note: the
basic strategies discussed and noted here are for multiple decks, rather that single or double as
there are many more of the former than the latter group.
It is quite frustrating to sit at a blackjack table knowing you are playing Basic Strategy to the
letter and are losing while other players are making foolish decisions and winning. The math of
the game states you are playing at a .05 disadvantage given a reasonable set of rules. That is
one-half of one percent, as close to 50-50 as you'll find, and about the best set of odds in the
modern casino. Yet there are no guarantees you'll get "good" cards. Probability theory views
events from a long-term basis, rather than isolated cases. That is why the game favors
disciplined players who have patience. If you play long enough, you will encounter sessions
where you know you did the right thing but lost hand after hand. The only satisfaction you can
take home is the knowledge that things will turn the other way, sooner or later. Those who are
winning by playing foolishly may smile, but it will be a temporary situation and one which can
get them into deep trouble.
Basic Hitting and Standing Strategies for "Hard" Totals or Hands.
"Hard" and "soft" hands in blackjack terminology refers to the presence or lack of an ace in
astarting hand, A hard hand or total is one that does not involve an ace, while a soft one hand
means that one of the two starting cards is an ace. This requires special consideration. The key
number to remember is 17. It is the cutoff point for deciding whether to hit or not. Each
denomination is counted as its printed value, ex. the two of clubs is counted as a 2; the seven of
hearts is counted as a 7. Suits are not considered of any importance or ranked order --it is the
numerical value that counts. All face cards count as 10s The problem child here is the ace, which
can be counted as either a 1 or 11. This card can lead to a great deal of confusion (see "soft
hands").
When the dealer has a 7-10 showing
Requesting a card or a hit on 17 or above will do two things: it will mark you as a rank amateur
and will make other players abandon your table. There are only four cards to improve your hand
with a 17, three with an 18, 2 with a 19 and one with a 20. The odds are stacked against you in
every case. With 17 as the player's key point, 6 is the corresponding cutoff card for the dealer's
exposed card in determining how you play it, with the deuce or 2 being the exception to the rule
(refer to "The Terror of the Twos"). It is important to remember: everything is relative to the one
card the dealer is showing. If the dealer's exposed card is 3-6, the player has a better chance of
winning than if the dealer is showing a 2, 9, 10 (or face card) or ace. Seven and eight fall in the
middle. Generally accepted blackjack theory notes that 18.3 represents the calculated average
hand needed to win. In other words, a hand with less than a 19 total (you can't get fractions in
blackjack), is potentially a losing hand. If the dealer is showing a 7, 8, 9, or 10-value card, you
will need to hit if you have less than a 17. With a total of 17, you are stuck-you can't take a hit,
but your chances aren't good. The math of the game says you can't take a card to improve your
hand, but the best you can do is hope the dealer has a 5-10 if he/she is showing a seven. With a
10, you tie, or "push." You don't win, but you don't lose. 5-9 makes the dealer hit once more. If
the dealer has an 8, 9, or 10-value card exposed, you have to hope that there is a 4, 5,6, or 7 in
the hole. That will make the dealer need to take a third card as well and this might put his/her
hand over the total of 21, with a busted hand. As there are more 10-value cards than any other,
the chances here are not as bad. When you receive a hard 17, 18, 19, or 20, there is nothing to
do except sit back and hope that the dealer's hand isn't as good as yours. You merely indicate to
the dealer that you don't want a card and want to stand. Obviously, with a 21 or blackjack,
there's no need to try to improve your position.
Dealer has a 3-6 showing
This situation is the most favorable to the player as the dealer has a better chance of going over
the total of 21, or busting. If you have a hard hand of 12-20 that is not a pair, you stand. If you
have a pair please refer to the section on pairs. With a hand of 3-11, you have options. Most of
these involve choices between hitting and doubling. Please keep in mind that these strategies
come from decades of computer analysis and development.
The Terror of the Twos
You were dealt a Jack and a 10. You're feeling secure because the dealer is only showing a
meager deuce. Confidently, you refuse another card. The dealer quietly takes an 8 out from the
hole, then draws an ace Your bright smile is quickly transformed into a dejected stare. You've
been robbed! Not really. You've just come up against the toughest card: the terrible two. You
might think the ace is difficult because the dealer could have one half of the cards toward a
blackjack. It might shock you to know the dealer will beat you more times with that efficient 2
than you might realize. If you think of it this way, a two is like a chameleon: it will blend with
almost anything. With a dealer's 2 up, a 6, 7, 8, or 9 in the hole becomes a real problem for the
player, because if a 10 follows, the dealer is sitting on a probable winning hand. If an ace, 2, 3,
4, or 5 appears and there's a run of small cards, you've probably lost as well. The best of all
worlds is if the dealer pulls a 10-value card from the hole and draws another 10. A dealer's 12 is
as problematical as yours: they seem to be magnets for 10s. The polar opposite end of this
situation is when it is your own. Basic strategy dictates that when you have a 12 versus a dealer's
2 you are supposed to take a card. For some reason, your player's12 seems to attract every face
card within a five-casino range. But due to the power of the dealer's 12, you are probably sitting
with a losing hand anyway-- you might as well try to improve your position. With a 13 through
20 against the dealer's 2, you stand pat. When you have a 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,or 8 versus the dealer's 2,
you take another card until you get past 12. When you have a 9,10 or 11, you double down.
Soft Hands
These are the hands which cause the greatest amount of confusion, the most consternation and
bewilderment. It is vital to remember that you can count the ace as either a 1 or 11 at any point
you chose. Soft hands provide a great deal of trouble partly because how you treat them varies
with the dealer's up card. Think of these situations as an opportunity, rather than a problem.
Sure we'd all love to be gifted with two 10s every time, but that is just a tad unrealistic. With an
ace paired with an 8,9,10, you always stand. An ace-seven against a dealer's two you stand;
against a 3-6, you double, seven or eight you stand; 9, 10, 11, you hit. Ace-six against a
dealer's 2 you hit; 3-6 you double; against a dealer's 7-ace you hit. Same goes for ace-five
except you hit against a dealer's 3. You treat the ace-4 the same as an ace-5 .With an ace-3,
you take a card versus a dealer's 2 -10, but double a 5-6. Finally, you hit an ace-2 when a
dealer is showing 2-10 except on 5 when you double.
Doubling
In the game of blackjack, there are opportunities presented and the recognition of these is one of
the major distinctions between leaving the table a winner or loser. This thought carries a great
deal of validity: Doubling your original bet in an advantageous situation carries no guarantee you
will automatically win. But basic theory dictates you must try to maximize these situations as
much as you can. These are the bets that count. It is important to remember that in most casinos
you will only receive only one card when you double and you are not permitted to double after
you've already received a third or fourth card. There are certain doubles that are automatic: The
theory is you'll receive a ten-value card and win. Even if you don't get a 10, it is possible to draw
a card that will improve your hand, allowing it to beat the dealer or the dealer will bust. There
are specific rules which apply to doubling and you want to use these opportunities in the best
fashion. If after you double, with the dealer showing a ten-value card, and an ace is overturned
giving the dealer a blackjack, most casinos will give you the second part of your bet back rather
than taking all of it. As a rule, you always double 11 except when the dealer is showing an ace.
You double 10 at all times except when the dealer is showing wither ace or ten. Double 9 when
the dealer shows 3-6. Please refer to the soft hands to see those double.
Splitting
Closely related in theory and practice to doubling splits represent another group which will help
you leave the blackjack table a winner or loser. The first step is to recognize which pairs
represent the real opportunities. The second step is to act and the third is to win those hands.
The first two parts are educational in nature. The third brings no guarantees. There are two hard
and fast rules: never split 5s, and don't split 10s for opposite reasons. With 5s you are turning a
hand that should be counted as a 10 and either doubled or hit into two hands of five. Each one
turns into potential problems when 7,8,9,or 10 appear. Always remember there are more ten
value cards than any other. When you dissemble a ten, you are missing an opportunity for a
twenty. With the two 10-value cards, you are replacing a 20, doubling your original bet size, and
getting stuck with a two potentially worse hands. You may get cards 2-7 twice over. What you
want to do is maximize your opportunities. Aces and eights are the cards that you always want to
split. With the ace, in most casinos, you are allowed only one card after you split them.
Obviously, you are hoping for a ten on each one. The thought here is that if you don't split your
aces, you have a cumulative value of 2 or 12. The danger here is that if you draw 2 10-value
cards in a row, not at all unusual, you will bust. You are also trying to maximize your
opportunities by turning a single bet into twice that amount. Eights are always split as the total
of 16 is the single worst hand for a player. At best, you hope to maximize this hand by first
getting a 2 or three on one of the split pairs. This turns your dangerous 8 into a more favorable
10 or 11. At this point you can double the hand (where allowed) or at least hope for a coveted
10-value card. If you get a ten for your 8 right away, you have succeeded in turning the two 8s
into at least one 18. Failing to get two or three winning hands, you hope to escape with at least
one winner and get a push from the deal. Naturally, there is always the chance you'll lose both,
but you'll go down fighting. Split 9s unless the dealer is showing 7, 10 or ace. Split 7s when the
dealer shows 2-7, hit 8-ace. Split 6s, 3-6, hit the others. Never split 4s. Split 2s and 3s, 3-6,
hit the other situations.
Insurance
The dealer will ask if you would like to take "insurance" if he or she is showing an ace exposed.
Because the odds of the dealer having a blackjack are approximately 1 in 3, the correct answer is
"No.". What the dealer is asking is if you would like to wager up to one-half of your original bet
that there is a blackjack or a ten-value card in the hole. You lose this insurance bet if the dealer
does not have blackjack, but get paid what you bet for insurance if there is one. I would suggest
that there is some degree of flexibility here. In a situation where about a quarter of a shoe has
been played and you have noticed the absence of many 10-value cards (note: it is always a good
habit to keep track of the cards that have been played, if you can.), you might elect to take
insurance based on your observation and the fact that the deck is "rich" in 10s, thus elevating
the chance of the dealer's blackjack. But generally speaking, it is wise to decline insurance. Just
wave it off.
Luck
An old casino adage is: "I'd rather be lucky than good." Anyone can get lucky, but it takes some
knowledge to be able to play and win on a regular basis. This is why you need to make your
decisions based on a factual foundation of mathematical probability rather than guesswork,
hunches, or hoed for luck. With that said, just as in life there are people who just seem to have
luck welded to their beings, while others trip over that satchel in the middle of the street
containing a million dollars only to get hit by a car.the same holds true in a casino. Some people
seem to be born lucky, while others appear to have a black cloud over their heads. Most of us fall
somewhere in between. We have our lucky streaks and then other times we trip over our own
shoelaces. Some advice: if you are losing at a table leaving you in a negative mindset, don't stay.
Take a break. Clear your head. Change tables or do something to alter the situation.
Mathematical probability proclaims things will even out in the long run. But by then, you might
be broke. One of the surest aspects to gambling is short-term streaks. These come in two
forms-favorable winning streaks and awful losing streaks. Probability experts call these streaks
deviations. But a prolonged one can hit your bankroll where it hurts. Most longtime players try to
minimize these negative swings by protecting their bankrolls (see money management). The
point here: if you're on a losing steak, don't try to force your play. Take a break and play another
time or place.
Card Counting
Playing optimal or perfect basic strategy still leaves the player at a 0.05 disadvantage to the
House. By using a card counting system, he/she can swing the advantage to the players side by
as much as 1-2 percent, a major alteration. It is for this reason that casinos do all they can to
discourage card counters from playing. Card counters in blackjack remain the one group who
can legally beat the casino on a regular basis. There are numerous card counting systems
ranging from relatively simple to highly complex. They all share the basic premise that assigns a
numerical value to each card. The player adds and subtracts these values as cards appear arriving
at what is called the "running count". This fluctuating count represents cards which are known or
have already been played. This number is figured against the remaining cards to determine the
more valuable "true count" representing the cards not yet played. When the count is plus, rich, or
positive, there are usually a greater number of aces and ten-value cards remaining to be played.
This situation favors the player. In the opposite case, when there is a negative or minus count,
there are a higher number of lowered value cards remaining to be played. This situation favors
the casino as there is a greater chance for the dealer to arrive at a winning hand. Perfecting card
counting skills takes a dedication to practice, memorization and technique. It is certainly not for
everyone but those who master it can rest assured they can achieve a higher success rate than
almost any other casino player.
This message was edited by marcuslai on 13-Feb-2010 @ 11:33 AM
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