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The devastating 2011 Tohoku earthquake and ensuing tsunami caused billions of dollars of damage and the deaths of thousands. The study published last year suggests that tidal stresses could influence large magnitude earthquakes. Photo from SFDEM
While tidal influence on earthquakes has been debated since the 19th century, most scientists remain unconvinced. This is largely due to the difficulty in producing reliable data, as well as the fact that tides impart such as small amount of stress when compared to tectonic forces. However, this study is one of the few to show a statistical link, and turned heads.
In an interview with USA Today, University of Washington seismologist Dr. John Vidale said, “Scientists will find this result, if confirmed, quite interesting.” However, just because scientists find something interesting does not mean they will jump on the bandwagon. Additionally, Vidale pointed out that because the likelihood of deadly earthquakes occurring on a weekly basis is so infinitesimal, this study won’t help with predictions.
Furthermore, even if a clear correlation is found, it is unlikely the information will be able to be used in a practical sense. Mark Quigley, University of Melbourne associate professor in active tectonics and geomorphology, and this author’s former supervisor, said in an interview that he doesn’t see any practical use “in the context of coastal seismic hazard and public safety,” especially when compared to building codes and tsunami evacuation plans. This is likely true as evacuating coastal regions during times of increased tidal stress is unlikely to catch on.
Despite this caveat, this study does lend itself towards potentially opening a door in determining when and how subduction zone earthquakes occur. It is likely that from this work, greater attention will be given to tidal stresses when assessing when earthquakes occur. However, if you are lucky enough to be in the path of totality during today’s solar eclipse, do not think about earthquakes, just enjoy the surreal experience of being plunged into darkness during the middle of the day.
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08-Apr 2024 Monday
10:16 AM (26 days ago)
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