Nomura | Raffles Medical July 25, 2012
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Key data on Raffles Medical
Income statement (SGDmn)
Year-end 31 Dec FY10 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F
Revenue 239 273 319 375 440
Cost of goods sold -160 -185 -218 -255 -298
Gross profit 79 88 101 120 143
SG&A -26 -29 -36 -41 -48
Employee share expense
Operating profit 53 60 66 78 95
EBITDA 60 67 74 88 105
Depreciation -7 -7 -8 -9 -11
Amortisation
EBIT 53 60 66 78 95
Net interest expense 0 0 0 0 0
Associates & JCEs 0 0 0 0 0
Other income
Earnings before tax 53 59 66 78 95
Income tax -8 -9 -10 -12 -14
Net profit after tax 45 51 56 66 80
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0
Other items
Preferred dividends
Normalised NPAT 45 50 55 66 80
Extraordinary items
Reported NPAT 45 50 55 66 80
Dividends -18 -21 -22 -22 -22
Transfer to reserves 27 29 34 44 58
Valuation and ratio analysis
Reported P/E (x) 29.3 26.7 24.5 20.8 17.3
Normalised P/E (x) 29.3 26.7 24.5 20.8 17.3
FD normalised P/E (x) 29.3 26.7 24.5 20.8 17.3
FD normalised P/E at price target (x) 32.5 29.6 27.2 23.1 19.2
Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Price/cashflow (x) 27.0 21.2 17.3 16.1 13.6
Price/book (x) 4.6 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 21.0 19.7 17.5 14.4 11.2
EV/EBIT (x) 23.8 22.1 19.8 16.1 12.5
Gross margin (%) 33.1 32.4 31.8 31.9 32.4
EBITDA margin (%) 25.1 24.5 23.3 23.4 23.9
EBIT margin (%) 22.2 21.8 20.7 20.9 21.5
Net margin (%) 18.9 18.5 17.4 17.6 18.2
Effective tax rate (%) 14.3 14.8 15.0 15.0 15.0
Dividend payout (%) 40.5 42.3 38.9 33.0 27.4
Capex to sales (%) 2.3 1.8 18.3 8.9 4.2
Capex to depreciation (x) 0.8 0.7 6.9 3.6 1.7
ROE (%) 16.9 16.2 15.4 15.8 16.5
ROA (pretax %) 20.1 18.5 16.2 17.4 20.0
Growth (%)
Revenue 9.4 14.1 16.9 17.5 17.4
EBITDA 14.4 11.4 11.3 17.8 20.3
EBIT 16.5 12.3 10.7 18.6 21.1
Normalised EPS 18.1 9.6 9.0 17.8 20.4
Normalised FDEPS 18.1 9.6 9.0 17.8 20.4
Per share
Reported EPS (SGD) 8.61c 9.43c 10.28c 12.11c 14.58c
Norm EPS (SGD) 8.61c 9.43c 10.28c 12.11c 14.58c
Fully diluted norm EPS (SGD) 8.61c 9.43c 10.28c 12.11c 14.58c
Book value per share (SGD) 0.54 0.63 0.72 0.82 0.95
DPS (SGD) 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
Relative performance chart (one year)
Source: ThomsonReuters, Nomura research
(%) 1M 3M 12M
Absolute (SGD) 12.0 12.5 6.8
Absolute (USD) 12.7 11.5 3.1
Relative to index 5.0 11.2 10.1
Market cap (USDmn) 1,065.8
Estimated free float (%) 46.7
52-week range (SGD) 2.53/2.02
3-mth avg daily turnover
(USDmn) 0.58
Major shareholders (%)
Dr. Loo Choon Yong 52.9
Source: Thomson Reuters, Nomura research
Notes
Expansion plans to drive growth